- 2024-01-31T00:00:00
- Company Research
- 2023 results: Net revenue was VND33.1tn (-2.2% YoY) and NPAT was VND2.0tn (+8.9% YoY), which completes 103% and 108% of our respective full-year forecasts and exceeds our expectations due to better-than-expected (1) net sales and (2) operating margin. Retail sales (58% of total sales) declined 8% YoY in 2023, lower than the 11%-decline in 9M 2023. On the other hand, wholesales revenue (9% of total sales) plunged 31% YoY in 2023.
- Q4 2023: Net revenue was VND9.8tn (+18% YoY; +41% QoQ) and NPAT was VND632bn (+34% YoY; +150% QoQ). Robust YoY revenue growth was mainly driven by a 75%-YoY surge in gold bar sales. Stronger NPAT growth was thanks to (1) a YoY increase in retail sales GPM of ~490 bps and (2) a partial reversal of PNJ’s provisional marketing costs, saving SG&A expenses in Q4. Additionally, retail sales advanced 34% QoQ in Q4, which is encouraging amid broad-based weak consumption.
- December 2023: PNJ’s net revenue was VND3.6tn (+29% YoY; +17% MoM) and its NPAT was VND239bn (+42% YoY; +20% MoM). PNJ’s retail sales increased 16% MoM and 3% YoY. Gold bar sales soared 24% MoM and 125% YoY in December, which we mainly attribute to the domestic gold price rally since November 2023.
- Profitability: PNJ’s EBIT margin inched up 40 bps YoY in 2023 thanks to its GPM improving 80 bps YoY. The main driver of GPM improvement was GPM of retail sales rising 300 bps YoY (per our estimates) thanks to an improved product mix, especially the decrease in sales contribution of large ticket size products that have a low GPM.
- Store expansion: PNJ opened 48 new gold stores but closed seven silver stores, three PNJ Watch stores, and two PNJ Art stores in 2023. Its store count increased by 36 stores YoY to 400 as of YE 2023. We note that new stores were mainly located in the Mekong River Delta and the southeast of southern Vietnam, as well as central Vietnam.
- Our view: We believe PNJ delivered an outstanding result among retailers of discretionary consumer products in 2023, which exceeded our expectations. We foresee upside potential to our PNJ’s 2024F forecasts, pending a fuller review.
PNJ’s Q4 and 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2022A | 2023A | YoY | 2023F | 2023A as % of 2023F |
Net revenue | 8,302 | 9,760 | 18% | 33,876 | 33,137 | -2% | 32,307 | 103% |
| 5,631 | 5,619 | 0% | 21,129 | 19,481 | -8% | 19,228 | 101% |
| 961 | 720 | -25% | 4,142 | 2,879 | -31% | 2,899 | 99% |
| 1,930 | 3,381 | 75% | 8,721 | 10,544 | 21% | 9,724 | 108% |
| 104 | 128 | 23% | 540 | 569 | 5% | 648 | 88% |
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Gross profit | 1,469 | 1,751 | 19% | 5,927 | 6,059 | 2% | 5,922 | 102% |
SG&A expenses | -857 | -950 | 11% | -3,502 | -3,529 | 1% | -3,586 | 98% |
EBIT | 612 | 801 | 31% | 2,425 | 2,530 | 4% | 2,336 | 108% |
NPAT | 470 | 632 | 34% | 1,811 | 1,971 | 9% | 1,823 | 108% |
Gross margin | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| 17.5% | 18.3% |
| 18.3% |
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SG&A/net sales | 10.3% | 9.7% |
| 10.3% | 10.7% |
| 11.1% |
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SG&A/retail sales | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| 16.6% | 18.1% |
| 18.6% |
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EBIT margin | 7.4% | 8.2% |
| 7.2% | 7.6% |
| 7.2% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 5.7% | 6.5% |
| 5.3% | 5.9% |
| 5.6% |
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Source: PNJ, Vietcap (*segment revenue is gross revenue)
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