- We maintain our target price (TP) for PLX at VND37,800/share but upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM as the share price has dropped by 15% from its peak in early-August 2023. Our unchanged TP mainly reflects (1) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to end-2024, which offsets (2) a 5% lower aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI forecast (-10%/-5%/3%/-11%/2% in 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively). The lower aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI is mainly due to (1) our increase of PLX’s aggregate 2023-2027F SG&A expense projection to ensure sufficient staffing, which outweighs (2) the higher domestic sales volume assumptions for 2025-2027F following 9M 2023’s resilient volume.

- We forecast 2023F reported NPAT-MI growth by 110% to VND3.0tn, primarily supported by (1) improving petroleum profit driven by a base price review in late 2022 and an increase in regulated cost in early July 2023, and (2) a PG Bank divestment gain booked in Q3.

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