- We cut our target price (TP) for PLX by 2% to VND37,000/share but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Our lower TP is primarily due to (1) a 5.7% reduction in the aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (-8.8%/-6.8%/-5.0%/-4.4%/-4.7% in 2024/25/26/27/28F), partly offset by (2) an 8.4% higher-than-expected cash and short-term investment at the end of Q4 2023. This decrease in NPAT stems from an increase in the aggregate 2024-2028F SG&A expense projection, which outweighs our slightly higher gross profit per liter assumption.

- We forecast 2024F reported NPAT to grow by 28% to VND3.6tn due to (1) a 4% YoY increase in domestic sales volume, and (2) a 4% YoY increase in gross profit per liter, supported by full year effect of 3% higher regulated costs (effective early July 2023). 

- We project a 15% CAGR in reported EPS for 2023-2028F, which is driven by PLX capitalizing on Vietnam's resilient projected petroleum demand growth of 4.1% p.a. in 2023-2028F (per the Government), which is four times the IEA’s projected global growth rate.

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