-    We raise our target price (TP) for PLX by 24% to VND55,000/share and maintain a BUY rating. Our higher TP reflects (1) an 11% increase in our aggregate 2024-28F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of +4%/+14%/+13%/+12%/+12% for 2024/25/26/27/28F), and (2) an increase in our terminal growth rate assumption from 2% to 3%. Our target price implies 2024F/2025F P/Es of 20.3x/14.8x, respectively, vs PLX’s historical 5Y average P/E of 20.3x. 

-    Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI forecast is driven by ~5% higher gross profit per liter following the MoIT and MoF’s adjustment in regulated cost for petroleum products, effective July 4.  

-    We forecast 2024F reported NPAT to grow by 34% due to (1) a 4% YoY increase in domestic volume, and (2) a 11% YoY increase in gross profit per liter, which outweigh our estimated VND300bn loss from the divestment of Petrolimex Laos. PLX’s H1 2024 volume grew 1% YoY.

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