We maintain our BUY rating while trimming our target price (TP) by 3% to VND50,200/share.

Our 3% lower TP is due to 1) 32%/6% cuts in 2022/2023F NPAT-MI due to the negative impact of PLX increasing petroleum imports amid high and volatile oil prices and 2) our 50-bp higher risk-free rate. Meanwhile, we keep our 2024-2026F NPAT-MI nearly unchanged.

We forecast 2022F earnings to decline 37.2% YoY as 1) high and volatile oil prices hurt the company’s petroleum segment profit margin and 2) as we include an inventory provision expense of VND1.1tn. Nevertheless, we expect PLX’s earnings to improve in future quarters and 2023F earnings growth of 97.7% YoY with a more stable domestic supply.