- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for PHR but lower our target price by 3% to VND53,200/share. Our lower target price is mainly due to (1) a lower 2023-2025F IP land sales projection for VSIP III IP, and (2) a lower net cash position at end-2023F, which are partially offset by (3) rolling forward our target price horizon to end-2024 from mid-2024.

- We lower our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 6% to VND523bn (USD22mn; -41% YoY) because we delay our projection for profit contribution from VSIP III to 2024F vs 2023F previously.

- We lower our 2024F and 2025F NPAT-MI forecasts by 11% and 3% to VND446bn (USD19mn; -15% YoY) and VND799bn (USD33mn; +79% YoY), respectively, as we anticipate slower land sales and profit recognition for VSIP III IP given that land sales in 2023 trailed our previous expectations. 

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