We maintain our BUY rating for PHR despite cutting our target price by 4.4% to VND82,600/share.

Our lower target price is mainly due to our 0.5-ppt higher WACC (as we increase our risk-free rate assumption) and rescheduling our land sales debut forecast for the Tan Lap I IP project (200 ha) to 2024F from 2023F due to the slower-than-expected approval process. Following the latter change, we cut our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 18% and raise our aggregate NPAT-MI forecasts in 2024-2026F by 4.4%.

For 2022F, we cut our revenue forecast by 11% to VND1.8tn (USD78mn; -7.5% YoY) and trim our NPAT-MI forecast by 2% to VND987bn (USD43mn; +107% YoY) mainly due to our lower forecasts for the rubber and wood segments. Our 2022F bottom-line forecast is mainly driven by our compensation income forecast of VND691bn (USD30mn) from rubber land conversion to the Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) III in the year.