- We maintain our BUY rating for PHR but cut our target price (TP) by 18% to VND48,800/share. Our RNAV-based IP valuation incorporates (1) IP projects that have obtained investment approval from the Government (e.g., VSIP III and Nam Tan Uyen 2 Expansion – NTC3 IPs) and (2) projects that are included in provincial masterplans as well as PHR’s 2023-2025 development plan (e.g., the Tan Lap I and Tan Binh Expansion IPs) .
- Our lower TP is mainly due to our lower valuations for most IP projects as we are conservative on PHR’s project development timelines due to uncertainties in obtaining legal approval. This negative factor is partially offset by rolling our TP horizon from end-2023 to mid-2024.
- For 2023F, we cut our revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts by 17%/27% to VND1.6tn (USD69mn; -5% YoY)/VND563bn (USD24mn; -36% YoY) due to our lower sales assumptions for both the rubber segment and the Tan Binh IP. We also expect the recognition timeline of the NTC3 project to be delayed.