- We upgrade our rating for PHR to BUY from OUTPERFORM and raise our target price by 38% to VND73,700/share. Our higher target price is mainly due to our expectation for a faster and more extensive conversion of rubber land to industrial park areas compared to our previous projections, given the recent finalization of the draft of Binh Duong’s provincial masterplan for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decline 35% YoY to VND401bn (USD16.5mn) mainly due to the YoY lower compensation income and IP land handovers. Nevertheless, we project 94% YoY growth for 2025F NPAT-MI as we continue to expect Tan Lap 1 IP to start land sales and handovers from 2025F.

- We revise down our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 10% mainly because a large portion of the compensation income from VSIP III's IP land sales in 2022 was recognized in Q4 2023, which was quicker than we previously projected. We broadly maintain our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast. 

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