- We edge up our target price (TP) for PC1 by 2% but downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM as its share price has increased 13% over the past 4 months.

- Our slightly higher TP is due to a 1% increase in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast, which is driven mainly by our higher aggregate earnings projections for the power construction and electric steel pole manufacturing segments in this period. These factors outweigh our lower aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecasts for the power generation segment and the Nomura Industrial Park (IP) following weaker-than-expected 2023 results.

- We forecast 2024F reported NPAT-MI to quadruple YoY from 2023’s low base. This is primarily due to (1) nearly doubling YoY revenue from power construction, (2) a VND107bn profit contribution from the 30%-stake Western Pacific’s IP vs. none in 2023, (3) the full-year operation of the nickel plant, and (4) lower YoY financial expenses due to lower interest rates and a lower forex loss. 

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