- We reiterate BUY rating for PC1 and raise our target price (TP) by 8.0% to VND31,200/share. This is due to a 4.5% increase in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of +10%/0%/+7%/+5%/+3%) and the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to end-2025 (page 4).

- Our higher aggregate earnings forecast is driven by our 24% higher aggregate NPAT-MI projection for the nickel mining business, fueled by our 55% higher sales volume across the forecast period. This outweighs our 4.9% lower aggregate NPAT-MI from power construction (mainly due to respective 30%/28% lower earnings projections for 2024/25F). 

- We project 2025F NPAT-MI to rise 67% YoY, driven by (1) 26% YoY revenue growth in power construction, with a 2.8x expansion in 500kV line length for 2026-2030 vs 2021-2025 and renewed investment in renewables following the expected H1 2025 implementation of DPPA, (2) stronger hydropower earnings, (3) new Thap Vang real estate revenue (vs none in 2024F), and (4) no FX loss.

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