Vietnam’s pangasius export activities were significantly dampened in Q1 2023. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Producers and Exporters (VASEP) and AgroMonitor, Vietnam’s pangasius export volume dropped 23% YoY in Q1 2023. We believe this was mainly due to destocking by food and beverage (F&B) operators starting from H2 2022 amid sluggish consumption and fears of a global recession. 

In Q2 2023, export volume to the US improved while volume to China slid. Pangasius export value increased 7% QoQ in Q2 2023, which was mainly led by volume recovering by 6% QoQ. Export volume exported to US and Europe advanced 39% QoQ and 9% QoQ, respectively, which were the strongest QoQ rebounds among key export markets. Following more-resilient-than-expected consumer spending and stronger consumer confidence in the US in Q2 2023, the outlook looks brighter for foodservice demand, which is the key frozen pangasius fillet distribution channel. With the year-end festive season approaching, we expect to see a recovery in orders from the US market — the second biggest market for Vietnamese pangasius. Meanwhile, the prospects for a recovery in pangasius exports to China look less vibrant in H2 2023 vs the beginning of the year due to that nation’s current economic headwinds.

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