- We estimate a fair value for OIL of VND16,200/share. OIL is a young, dynamic company with an aggressive sales strategy. We expect OIL to achieve: (1) aggressive COCO station (company-owned-company-operated) expansion, driving a 6% sales volume CAGR—1.5 times the projected industry growth; (2) improved profitability from higher selling prices due to increased regulated operating costs; and (3) a 24% CAGR in PBT from non-oil services, including EV charging stations.

-  We forecast 2024F core NPAT-MI to grow 47% YoY and reported NPAT-MI to rise 11% YoY, due to (1) an 8% YoY increase in domestic volume and (2) a 5% YoY rise in gross profit per liter, due to upward adjustments in regulated operating costs.

-  We forecast 41% YoY growth in 2025F core NPAT-MI, driven by (1) a 6% YoY rise in domestic sales volume and (2) GPM expansion from higher regulated costs since July 2024 and the new decree (see our Petroleum Sector Update Report) allowing petrol distributors to set their own prices.

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