We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our target price for NT2 by ~7% to VND30,000/share as we increase our aggregate 2022-2026 adjusted NPAT forecasts by 19%.

Given NT2’s consistently proven track record in bidding strategy, we expect the company’s competitive generation market (CGM) price to jump, which would boost 2022F ASP to VND2,163/kwh (+16% YoY; +8% vs our previous forecast). We also raise our ASP assumptions in 2023-2026F by 1%-7%. In addition, we raise NT2’s utilization rate in 2024-2025 from 80% to 82% (see page 9).

We raise 2022F adjusted NPAT (excluding compensation for previous FX losses) by 21% thanks to our higher CGM price assumption that outweighs our higher gas price assumption.