- We cut our target price for NT2 by 20% to VND26,400/share but upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY as the company’s share price has declined by 33% over the past four months. Our lower target price is driven by our 33% lower aggregate 2023-2027F reported NPAT forecast (33%/42%/42%/22%/27% cuts for 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively), which is partly offset by the positive effect of rolling our horizon to end-2024.

- We cut our 2023F reported NPAT projection by 33% primarily due to (1) our 16% lower sales volume forecast following lower-than-previously-expected 9M 2023 sales volume and (2) an 8% reduction in our 2023F CGM price assumption for NT2 as we cut our forecast for the sector’s 2023F CGM price by 10% (Please see our Thermal Power Sector Report dated October 25, 2023 for details). We forecast 2023F reported NPAT to decline by 54% YoY with implied Q4 NPAT of VND150bn (-6% YoY) but expect a 78% jump in 2024F reported NPAT.  

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