- 2024-01-19T00:00:00
- Company Research
- NT2 announced its Q4 2023 results with revenue of VND1.2tn (-38% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND240bn (+51% YoY). The divergence between the top line and bottom line growth can be primarily attributed to significantly higher non-mobilized contracted volume (Qc) in Q4 2023 at 365 million kWh vs 53 million kWh in Q4 2022, per our estimates. We note that NT2 is compensated for this non-mobilized Qc while not incurring costs for it. Additionally, financial income increased by 71% YoY.
- In 2023, NT2 recorded revenue of VND6.4tn (-27% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND496bn (-44% YoY), which are equivalent to 97% and 130% of our respective forecasts. Its earnings beat our forecast due to higher-than-expected compensation for non-mobilized Qc and lower-than-expected SG&A expenses. We attribute the declines in revenue and NPAT-MI primarily to 29% YoY lower sales volume to 2.9 billion kWh, which resulted from a significant gas shortage during peak hours in Q2, major maintenance for most of September and October, as well as low power demand in Q4. Additionally, we believe that NT2 did not record a compensation for FX loss in 2023 vs ~VND300bn in 2022. Meanwhile, SG&A expenses dropped 66% YoY mainly because of a VND41bn reversal of a provision for bad debt, which NT2 made in 2022. Financial income more than trippled YoY.
- We currently forecast 2024F sales volume of 3.8 billion kWh (+32% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND458bn (-8% YoY). However, we foresee significant downside risk to our projections, pending a fuller review, mainly due to the National Load Dispatch Center’s significantly low mobilization plan for NT2.
NT2’s Q4 & 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | % of 2023F |
Sales volume (million kWh) | 991 | 395 | -60% | 4,064 | 2,889 | -29% | 92% |
Qc (million kWh) | 759 | 760 | 0% | 3,469 | 3,286 | -5% | 95% |
ASP (VND/kWh) | 1,942 | 3,037 | 56% | 2,090 | 2,209 | 6% | 105% |
Gas price (USD/MMBTU) | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4% | 9.4 | 9.1 | -3% | 100% |
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Revenue | 1,925 | 1,201 | -38% | 8,788 | 6,383 | -27% | 97% |
COGS | -1,860 | -974 | -48% | -7,706 | -5,874 | -24% | 95% |
Gross profit | 65 | 227 | 250% | 1,082 | 509 | -53% | 120% |
SG&A | 116 | 10 | N.M. | -131 | -45 | -66% | 49% |
Operating profit | 181 | 236 | 31% | 950 | 464 | -51% | 140% |
Financial income | 19 | 32 | 71% | 24 | 107 | 338% | 106% |
Financial expense | -10 | -12 | 13% | -18 | -34 | 94% | 115% |
Other income | -14 | 0 | -100% | -14 | 0 | -99% | N.M. |
Profit before tax | 175 | 257 | 47% | 943 | 536 | -43% | 133% |
NPAT-MI, reported | 159 | 240 | 51% | 883 | 496 | -44% | 130% |
NPAT-MI, adjusted | 35 | 220 | 532% | 659 | 475 | -28% | 125% |
Source: NT2, Vietcap
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