- 2024-07-22T00:00:00
- Company Research
- NLG announced Q2 2024 NPAT-MI of VND145bn (USD5.7mn; +20% YoY and vs Q1 2024’s net loss of VND77bn/USD3.0mn), mainly fueled by the stake sales recognition in the Paragon project with a pre-tax gain of VND231bn (USD9mn). This stake sales recognition is in line with management’s guidance and our expectation.
- Although NLG’s H1 2024 NPAT-MI (VND68bn/USD2.7mn; -47% YoY) completes 13% of our 2024F forecast, we foresee insignificant changes to our current forecast, pending a fuller review. We expect H2 2024F earnings to be driven by the continued handovers at Southgate, Mizuki Park, and Izumi City, and the start of handovers at the Akari City Phase 2 and Can Tho projects.
- Key deliveries in H1 2024 include Mizuki Park (accounting for 63% of H1 2024 underlying property revenue), Southgate (27%), and Izumi City (9%). NLG’s underlying property revenue (including revenue from the joint-venture Mizuki Park project) in H1 2024 was VND1.0tn (USD40mn; -66% YoY).
- In June 2024, NLG announced that the company completed transferring a 25% stake in the Paragon project (total of ~520 low-rise units; NLG owns a 50% stake) to a Japanese partner. This project has fully completed its land compensation and land use rights certificate issuance. NLG transferred its first 25% stake in this project to local partners in December 2022 and the second 25% stake to a Japanese partner in June 2024.
- NLG’s Q2 2024 presales increased 29% QoQ to VND1.5tn (USD59mn), mainly supported by the presales at Southgate (contributing 45%), Akari City Phase 2 (37%), and Mizuki Park (15%). H1 2024 presales were VND2.7tn (USD105mn; +3x YoY), completing 54% of our 2024F forecast. We foresee slight potential upside to our 2024F presales forecast of VND5tn (USD196mn; +32% YoY), as the H1 2024 results at Akari City Phase 2 surpassed our previous expectations.
Figure 1: NLG’s property presales
VND bn | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 |
Akari City | 1,420 | 560 | 860 | 150 | 80 | 300 | 680 | 840 | 540 | 570 |
Southgate | 480 | 1,090 | 650 | 80 | 70 | 130 | 120 | 1,010 | 280 | 670 |
Mizuki Park | 760 | 2,050 | - | - | 90 | 200 | 100 | 150 | 250 | 220 |
Can Tho | 120 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 80 | 100 | 50 |
Izumi City | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total | 2,780 | 3,700 | 1,510 | 230 | 240 | 630 | 900 | 2,080 | 1,170 | 1,510 |
Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (presales rounded to nearest ten)
Figure 2: NLG’s H1 2024 results
VND bn | Q2 | Q2 | YoY | H1 2023 | H1 2024 | YoY | 2024F | H1 2024 as % of 2024F |
Net revenue | 953 | 252 | -74% | 1,188 | 457 | -62% | 5,326 | 9% |
| 877 | 210 | -76% | 1,052 | 372 | -65% | 5,231 | 7% |
| 76 | 43 | -44% | 136 | 85 | -38% | 95 | 90% |
Gross profit | 561 | 129 | -77% | 720 | 215 | -70% | 2,252 | 10% |
| 473 | 125 | -74% | 640 | 205 | -68% | 2,223 | 9% |
| 88 | 3 | -96% | 80 | 10 | -88% | 28 | 34% |
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SG&A expenses | -250 | -184 | -27% | -429 | -328 | -23% | -1,164 | 28% |
EBIT | 311 | -55 | N.M. | 292 | -113 | N.M. | 1,088 | N.M. |
Financial income | 41 | 250 | 517% | 86 | 276 | 219% | 327 | 84% |
Financial expense | -75 | -68 | -9% | -151 | -118 | -22% | -333 | 35% |
Profit from associates | 37 | 43 | 17% | 116 | 68 | -41% | 133 | 51% |
Other gain/loss | 6 | 7 | 5% | 12 | 19 | 59% | 0 | N.M. |
PBT | 320 | 177 | -45% | 354 | 131 | -63% | 1,214 | 11% |
Effective tax expenses | -88 | -17 | -80% | -107 | -36 | -66% | -216 | 17% |
NPAT | 231 | 160 | -31% | 248 | 95 | -62% | 998 | 10% |
Minority interest | -111 | -15 | -86% | -120 | -27 | -78% | -483 | 6% |
NPAT-MI | 121 | 145 | 20% | 128 | 68 | -47% | 515 | 13% |
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Gross margin | 58.8% | 51.0% |
| 60.6% | 47.1% |
| 42.3% |
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| 53.9% | 59.7% |
| 60.9% | 55.3% |
| 42.5% |
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| 115.4% | 7.9% |
| 58.8% | 11.3% |
| 30.0% |
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SG&A as % of revenue | 26.2% | 72.8% |
| 36.1% | 71.8% |
| 21.9% |
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EBIT margin | 32.6% | -21.8% |
| 24.6% | -24.7% |
| 20.4% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 12.7% | 57.4% |
| 10.7% | 14.8% |
| 9.7% |
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Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (last updated May 17, 2024)
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