NLG – Paragon stake sales recognition fuels H1 2024 profit; Q2 presales improve QoQ – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-07-22T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • NLG announced Q2 2024 NPAT-MI of VND145bn (USD5.7mn; +20% YoY and vs Q1 2024’s net loss of VND77bn/USD3.0mn), mainly fueled by the stake sales recognition in the Paragon project with a pre-tax gain of VND231bn (USD9mn). This stake sales recognition is in line with management’s guidance and our expectation.
  • Although NLG’s H1 2024 NPAT-MI (VND68bn/USD2.7mn; -47% YoY) completes 13% of our 2024F forecast, we foresee insignificant changes to our current forecast, pending a fuller review. We expect H2 2024F earnings to be driven by the continued handovers at Southgate, Mizuki Park, and Izumi City, and the start of handovers at the Akari City Phase 2 and Can Tho projects.
  • Key deliveries in H1 2024 include Mizuki Park (accounting for 63% of H1 2024 underlying property revenue), Southgate (27%), and Izumi City (9%). NLG’s underlying property revenue (including revenue from the joint-venture Mizuki Park project) in H1 2024 was VND1.0tn (USD40mn; -66% YoY).
  • In June 2024, NLG announced that the company completed transferring a 25% stake in the Paragon project (total of ~520 low-rise units; NLG owns a 50% stake) to a Japanese partner. This project has fully completed its land compensation and land use rights certificate issuance. NLG transferred its first 25% stake in this project to local partners in December 2022 and the second 25% stake to a Japanese partner in June 2024. 
  • NLG’s Q2 2024 presales increased 29% QoQ to VND1.5tn (USD59mn), mainly supported by the presales at Southgate (contributing 45%), Akari City Phase 2 (37%), and Mizuki Park (15%). H1 2024 presales were VND2.7tn (USD105mn; +3x YoY), completing 54% of our 2024F forecast. We foresee slight potential upside to our 2024F presales forecast of VND5tn (USD196mn; +32% YoY), as the H1 2024 results at Akari City Phase 2 surpassed our previous expectations.

Figure 1: NLG’s property presales

VND bn

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Akari City

1,420

560

860

150

80

300

680

840

540

570

Southgate

480

1,090

650

80

70

130

120

1,010

280

670

Mizuki Park

760

2,050

-

-

90

200

100

150

250

220

Can Tho

120

-

-

-

-

-

-

80

100

50

Izumi City

­-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

2,780

3,700

1,510

230

240

630

900

2,080

1,170

1,510

Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (presales rounded to nearest ten)

Figure 2: NLG’s H1 2024 results 

VND bn 

Q2  
 
   2023  

Q2   
 
 2024  

YoY

H1 

2023

H1 

2024

YoY  

2024F  

H1 2024 as % of 2024F  

Net revenue 

953

252

-74%

1,188

457

-62%

5,326

9%

  • Property sales 

877

210

-76%

1,052

372

-65%

5,231

7%

  • Services and leasing 

76

43

-44%

136

85

-38%

95

90%

Gross profit 

561

129

-77%

720

215

-70%

2,252

10%

  • Property sales 

473

125

-74%

640

205

-68%

2,223

9%

  • Services and leasing 

88

3

-96%

80

10

-88%

28

34%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SG&A expenses 

-250

-184

-27%

-429

-328

-23%

-1,164

28%

EBIT 

311

-55

N.M.

292

-113

N.M.

1,088

N.M.

Financial income 

41

250

517%

86

276

219%

327

84%

Financial expense 

-75

-68

-9%

-151

-118

-22%

-333

35%

Profit from associates 

37

43

17%

116

68

-41%

133

51%

Other gain/loss 

6

7

5%

12

19

59%

0

N.M.

PBT 

320

177

-45%

354

131

-63%

1,214

11%

Effective tax expenses 

-88

-17

-80%

-107

-36

-66%

-216

17%

NPAT 

231

160

-31%

248

95

-62%

998

10%

Minority interest 

-111

-15

-86%

-120

-27

-78%

-483

6%

NPAT-MI 

121

145

20%

128

68

-47%

515

13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross margin 

58.8%

51.0%

 

60.6%

47.1%

 

42.3%

 

  • Property sales 

53.9%

59.7%

 

60.9%

55.3%

 

42.5%

 

  • Services and leasing 

115.4%

7.9%

 

58.8%

11.3%

 

30.0%

 

SG&A as % of revenue 

26.2%

72.8%

 

36.1%

71.8%

 

21.9%

 

EBIT margin 

32.6%

-21.8%

 

24.6%

-24.7%

 

20.4%

 

NPAT-MI margin 

12.7%

57.4%

 

10.7%

14.8%

 

9.7%

 

Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (last updated May 17, 2024)

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