- 2024-01-26T00:00:00
- Company Research
- NLG announced Q4 2023 underlying property revenue (including revenue from the joint-venture Mizuki Park project) of VND2.7tn (USD111mn; +37% YoY and double QoQ), primarily supported by continued handovers at Mizuki Park and the start of handovers at Izumi City Phase 1. NLG also recorded commercial land sales at the Kikyo Residence project (Thu Duc City, HCMC) into the company’s Q4 2023 financial income (VND101bn/USD4.2mn) vs our forecast that it would be recognized into revenue (VND140bn/USD5.8mn) and gross profit (VND80bn/USD3.3mn).
- In 2023, NLG’s underlying property revenue was VND7.1tn (USD291mn; +56% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND484bn (USD20mn; -13% YoY), surpassing our respective forecasts by 15%. We attribute the higher 2023 NPAT-MI vs our forecast mainly to higher-than-expected financial income in Q4 2023. We anticipate downside risks to our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast of VND643bn (USD26.5mn; +33% YoY) due to faster-than-expected property sales recognition in Q4 2023, pending a fuller review.
- In early January, management stated that NLG’s preliminary 2023 presales amounted to ~VND4tn (USD165mn), equivalent to Q4 2023’s result of ~VND2.2tn (USD90mn), mainly supported by the presales at (1) Southgate, driven by VIP customer purchases for villa products and block sales at Ehome Southgate and (2) the next batch launch of Akari City Phase 2. The preliminary 2023 presales surpassed our forecast (VND2.8tn/USD115mn) mainly due to Q4 higher-than-expected presales at Southgate. We forecast NLG’s 2024F presales at VND5.6tn (USD230mn; +40% vs preliminary 2023 presales).
NLG’s 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 | Q4 | YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023F | 2023 as % of 2023F |
Net revenue | 1,629 | 1,636 | 0% | 4,339 | 3,181 | -27% | 3,373 | 94% |
| 1,538 | 1,546 | 1% | 4,083 | 2,905 | -29% | 3,181 | 91% |
| 91 | 90 | -1% | 256 | 276 | 8% | 191 | 144% |
Gross profit | 814 | 692 | -15% | 1,984 | 1,562 | -21% | 1,521 | 103% |
| 723 | 754 | 4% | 1,813 | 1,544 | -15% | 1,393 | 111% |
| 92 | -62 | N.M. | 171 | 18 | -90% | 128 | 14% |
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SG&A expenses | -385 | -354 | -8% | -1,155 | -980 | -15% | -913 | 107% |
EBIT | 429 | 338 | -21% | 829 | 582 | -30% | 608 | 96% |
Financial income | 307 | 128 | -58% | 386 | 246 | -36% | 120 | 205% |
Financial expense | -69 | -87 | 25% | -199 | -305 | 53% | -296 | 103% |
Profit from associates | 22 | 213 | 869% | 25 | 418 | 1604% | 410 | 102% |
Other gain/loss | 16 | 19 | 19% | 29 | 27 | -8% | 0 | N.M. |
PBT | 705 | 611 | -13% | 1,070 | 968 | -10% | 841 | 115% |
Effective tax expenses | -115 | -129 | 12% | -204 | -168 | -18% | -95 | 177% |
NPAT | 590 | 482 | -18% | 866 | 800 | -8% | 747 | 107% |
Minority interest | -153 | -192 | 26% | -309 | -317 | 2% | -328 | 97% |
NPAT-MI | 437 | 290 | -34% | 556 | 484 | -13% | 419 | 115% |
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Gross margin | 50.0% | 42.3% |
| 45.7% | 49.1% |
| 45.1% |
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| 47.0% | 48.8% |
| 44.4% | 53.1% |
| 43.8% |
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| 100.8% | N.M. |
| 67.1% | 6.5% |
| 67.1% |
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SG&A as % of revenue | 23.7% | 21.6% |
| 26.6% | 30.8% |
| 27.1% |
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EBIT margin | 26.3% | 20.7% |
| 19.1% | 18.3% |
| 18.0% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 26.8% | 17.7% |
| 12.8% | 15.2% |
| 12.4% |
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Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (last updated November 14, 2023)
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