We attended MWG’s online analyst meeting on February 16, during which management discussed its 2023 outlook and the conditions of its international businesses.

Management expects 2023 net revenue of VND135tn (USD5.7bn; +1% YoY) to VND150tn (USD6.4bn; +12% YoY) and net profit of VND4.2tn (USD178mn; +2% YoY) to VND4.7tn (USD199mn; +15% YoY). Furthermore, management expects a potential recovery in consumer spending to start in mid-Q3 2023 at the earliest or in Q4 2023 as base case. While our revenue forecast is in the middle of MWG’s guidance range, our projected net profit is 6% higher than the higher bound of the company’s guidance. As such, we see potential downside risk to our forecast, pending a fuller review. Below are our detailed takeaways.