- We trim our target price (TP) for MWG by 2% but reiterate our BUY rating. MWG’s current 2023F/2024F PERs of 12.5x/9.1x, respectively, look appealing vs our 2022-2025F EPS CAGR forecast of 31%. 

- Our lower TP is mainly due to trimming our aggregate 2023-25F NPAT-MI by 3% as we (1) cut aggregate 2023-2025F combined sales of The Gioi Di Dong (TGDD — including TopZone) and Dien May Xanh (DMX — including Bluetronics) by 3% due to their weaker-than-expected results in Q4 2022, and (2) lower our net profit forecast for the An Khang pharmacy chain to a net loss of VND305bn (USD13mn) vs our previous forecast of breaking even in 2023 as the chain’s 2022 profit tracked behind our expectation, per our estimates based on MWG’s financial statements. 

- We maintain our expectation that short-term headwinds will weaken TGDD and DMX’s combined top-line growth, which we forecast at 5%/7% in 2023F/2024F, respectively, vs 10% YoY in 2022.

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