- We trim our target price (TP) for MSN by 1% and downgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM from BUY as the stock’s price has increased by ~13% over the past three months.

- Our lower TP is mainly driven by cutting our aggregate 2023F-24F EBITDA for Phuc Long (PL) by 16% to reflect its lagging performance in H1 2023. This is partly offset by raising WinCommerce’s (WCM) valuation by 7% as we increase our aggregate 2025F-29F NPAT forecast by 10% even though we raise our 2023F net loss forecast by 7%. We believe its store upgrade in 2023F-24F will lead to greater store performance in the medium term (see page 4).

- We remain bullish on the outlook for MSN’s leading and wide-ranging consumer businesses, which should benefit from consumption growth in Vietnam over the long term. In 2024F-25F, we expect stronger consumer spending and a more favorable economic backdrop. We project MSN’s EBIT growth at 50%/17% in 2024F/25F, respectively, after it declined 6% in 2023F, which is mainly because we expect WCM’s store upgrade to bear fruit.

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