- We lower our target price (TP) for MSN by 14% to VND119,000 but reiterate our BUY rating.

- Our lower TP is primarily driven by our (1) lower in-house valuation for Techcombank (TCB) driven by an 11% aggregate decrease in our in-house projection for 2022-2026F NPAT-MI, (2) lower valuation for Masan Consumer Holdings (MCH) that is derived from our 17% lower projected aggregate EBIT for MCH in 2023-2025F, (3) 26% lower projected aggregated EBIT for WinCommerce (WCM) in 2023-2025F and (4) raising our WACC assumption as a result of our higher equity risk premium (ERP).

- We remain bullish on the outlook for MSN’s leading and wide-ranging consumer businesses to benefit from Vietnam’s long-term consumption growth. That said, we expect weak consumption to overhang MSN’s consumer retail business throughout 2023. We assume more vibrant consumer spending in H2 2024 and a full recovery starting from 2025. We also expect global economic slowdown to undermine Masan Hi-Tech Materials (MHT)’s sales. In addition, we expect higher financial expenses due to interest rates.

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