• We maintain our BUY rating for MBB and increase our target price (TP) by 5.3% to VND30,000/share mainly due to (1) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2025F that outweighs (2) a 6% reduction in our aggregate earnings forecast for 2024-2028F (respective changes of -6%/-10%/-4%/-5%/-6% in 2024/25/26/27/28F). 
• We cut our 2024F NPAT by 6.1% to VND23.3tn (USD931mn; +11% YoY) mainly due to a 7.1% cut in TOI forecasts following our lower NIM forecasts.
• We expect (1) strong top-line growth in 2024 to counteract high credit costs, (2) improving asset quality in the remainder of 2024F, and (3) MBB to maintain its top-tier CASA ratio in the sector due to dynamic customer acquisition amid a low-rate environment.
• Q1 2024 restructured loans under Circular 02: 0.44% of the total loan book (currently fully provisioned). 
• MBB’s 2024F P/B of 1.05x represents a 15% discount to the peer median of 1.23x despite a higher 2024F ROE of 22.2% vs the peer median of 18.9%, based on our forecasts.
• Downside risks: Higher-than-expected credit costs; lower-than-expected CASA ratio; supporting a distressed credit institution (DCI) potentially hindering the bank’s growth. 

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