- We maintain our BUY rating and target price (TP) of VND30,000/share for MBB as we trim our aggregate earnings forecast for 2024-2028F by only 0.8% (respective changes of 0%/-2%/-2%/0%/0% in 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- We maintain our forecast for 2024F NPAT at VND23.3tn (USD916mn; +11% YoY) as our 1% increase in TOI driven by higher NOII forecasts outweighs a 5% increase in provisioning expenses due to our higher write-off rate forecast.

- We expect (1) strong top-line growth in 2024 to counteract high credit costs, (2) well-contained asset quality in the remainder of 2024F, and (3) MBB to maintain its top-tier CASA ratio in the sector due to dynamic customer acquisition amid a low-rate environment.

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