- 2024-07-05T00:00:00
- Macroeconomics
Higher than expected Q2 2024 GDP growth. According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), Vietnam’s GDP increased 6.9% YoY in Q2 2024 – the second highest Q2 growth since 2019 (lower only than 8% growth in Q2 2022) – bringing overall GDP growth in H1 2024 to 6.4% YoY. Among the three main sectors of the economy, the industrial & construction sector rebounded 7.5% YoY in H1 2024 (H1 2023: 1.1% YoY), contributing 44.3% to overall growth.
We keep our 2024 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.5% given the upbeat Q2 GDP results. We expect economic growth in H2 2024 to be supported by: (1) Improvement in trade and production, which should stimulate consumption; (2) Government policy support measures (e.g., extended VAT cuts, fee reductions, 30% hike in public sector base salary, among others); (3) Solid growth of FDI disbursement; (4) Further recovery in foreign inbound tourism and (5) A gradual recovery in real estate & construction activity.
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