Vietnam’s Q2 2022 GDP growth hit its highest level in more than a decade. According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), Vietnam’s GDP growth hit 7.72% in Q2 2022 — the highest Q2 growth in 2011-2022 — lifting GDP growth in H1 2022 to a three-year high of 6.42% YoY (vs 5.74% in H1 2021 and 2.04% YoY in H1 2020). 

We maintain our FY2022 GDP growth forecast at 7.2%. We expect the solid recovery momentum to continue with robust economic growth in H2 2022 from a low base in H2 2021. While the domestic recovery is tracking ahead of our expectations, global risks have increased and have led to a deteriorated outlook of the global economy. Bloomberg consensus forecasts for global GDP growth have come down to 3.2% for both 2022 and 2023 vs 4.0% and 3.5% projected at the end of Q1 2022, respectively. In addition, growth forecasts for several key trade partners of Vietnam have decreased over this period, including the US (2.5%, -90 bps), China (4.1%, -90 bps) and the EU (2.9%, -50 bps).

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