- Vietnam’s exports and imports continued to show strong growth in 10M 2022 at 16.0% YoY and 12.2% YoY, respectively. The country recorded a trade surplus of USD9.6bn in 10M 2022 (vs a trade deficit of USD634mn in 10M 2021), which was supported by a large trade surplus in phones & cameras (USD36.0bn), textiles & footwear (USD34.8bn), rubber, wood & paper (USD14.0bn), and food & agriculture products (USD4.8bn) – see Figures 1-4.

- However, the global demand slowdown started to be reflected in Vietnam’s trade data in July (see our note, Trade shows signs of weakening). The most recent data further confirms the weakening trend with exports slowing to USD29.8bn in September (+9.9% YoY) and USD30.5bn in October (+5.2% YoY) from a high of USD34.9bn in August (+27.8% YoY) as Samsung released new products. In addition, average export revenue over the past two months declined 8.5% to USD30.1bn/month from an average of USD32.9bn/month in March (the month when all activity resumed from COVID restrictions) to August. Similarly, weaker demand is reflected in import data as import growth slowed to 4.9% YoY in September and 6.7% YoY in October from 12.8% YoY in August. Average imports over the past two months were USD28.1bn/month — a decline of 11.8% from an average of USD31.9bn/month in March – August — see Figures 5-8.

- With the exception of August, exports of phones & cameras (~18% of total exports in 10M 2022) fell YoY in three out of four months since July (July: -5.9% YoY; September: -9.6% YoY; October: -3.7% YoY). Exports of metals & metal products (~5% of total exports) dropped by around 20% YoY to 45% YoY in July-October due to weaker demand and falling metal prices. Although exports of textiles & footwear (~19% of total exports) maintained robust growth of over 20% YoY in October, they declined to around USD5.1bn/month in the past two months (-19% vs an average of above USD6.3bn/month in March – August 2022) - see Figures 9-12.

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