- We cut our target price (TP) for LPB by 5.2% to VND12,700 and downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to UNDERPERFORM. LPB’s share price has surged 40% in the last six months.

- Our lower TP is mainly derived from a 21.4% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of -24.5%/-27.0%/-28.0%/-18.5%/-14.3% in 2023/24/25/26/27F), which is partly offset by (1) the positive effect of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2024 and (2) lowering our assumption for LPB’s cost of equity due to an updated beta.

- Our lower aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI is mainly due to (1) an 11.0% aggregate decrease in NII following our lower assumption for average NIM and (2) a 19.8% aggregate decrease in NFI (including gains from FX trading) following our lower projection for fees from bancassurance. These factors are partly offset by (1) a 2.0% aggregate decrease in OPEX and (2) 2.3% aggregate decrease in provision expenses.

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