- We maintain our BUY rating for LHG and raise our target price (TP) by 4% to VND39,500/share.

- Our higher TP is primarily due to reducing our valuation discount for LHG by 5 ppts to 20% following significant improvement in LHG's trading volume over the last six months, offset partially by our 24% lower aggregate IP land sales projection for 2024-2026F. This IP land sales revision is due to (1) slower-than-expected 2023 IP land sales and (2) LHG's conservative sales strategy, which is slower than our previous expectation for the medium term.

- We forecast strong growth in 2024F NPAT-MI at 31% YoY to VND218bn (USD9.0mn) mainly due to a surge in IP land handovers to 4.0 ha vs 2023 low base of ~2.2 ha. 

- We lower our 2024/25/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 24%/18%/10%, respectively, as we expect LHG to maintain a cautious sales strategy for its LH3.1 IP in the medium term (5.7 ha/year in 2024-2026F, vs ~2.2 ha in 2023 and ~9.5 ha/year in 2019-2022). We also anticipate the company to adopt a more aggressive approach to sales activities once it secures investment approval for the new IP projects.

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