KDH – 2023 profit trails our forecast due to lower-than-expected handovers at Classia – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-01-30T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • KDH released Q4 2023 results with revenue of VND469bn (USD19mn; -62% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND62bn (USD2.6mn; -48% YoY). We attribute the YoY declines in Q4 2023 mainly to a lower number of delivered units YoY at the Classia project (~180 units in total – 92% presold at end Q3 2023; which is the main revenue driver in 2023).  
  • In 2023, KDH’s revenue and NPAT-MI were VND2.1tn (USD86mn; -28% YoY) and VND717bn (USD30mn, -35% YoY), completing 81% and 71% of our respective forecasts. We believe KDH’s results trailed our forecasts due to a lower-than-expected number of handovers at the Classia as we previously expected the Classia project to complete handovers of all units by end-2023.
  • KDH officially launched a new project named The Privia (Binh Tan District, HCMC, a total of ~1,040 high-rise units) in mid-November 2023. Per KDH, the company has presold over 800 units at The Privia as of end-2023, exceeding our previous forecast of ~400 units presold for this project in 2023. As such, we estimate that KDH’s 2023 presales were around VND4tn (USD165mn; vs VND2.1tn/86mn in 2022) which beat our forecast of VND2.9tn (USD119mn).
  • As we maintain our expectation that The Privia (topped out in December 2023) will be a major contributor to 2024 earnings, we foresee insignificant change to our forecast for KDH’s 2024F NPAT-MI of VND1.1tn (USD46mn), pending a fuller review.

KDH’s 2023 results 

VND bn

Q4 

2022

Q4 

2023

YoY

2022

2023

YoY

2023F

2023 as % of 2023F

Net revenue

1,234

469

-62%

2,912

2,093

-28%

2,593

81%

Gross profit

298

292

-2%

1,460

1,573

8%

1,855

85%

SG&A expenses

-100

-112

12%

-394

-369

-6%

-354

104%

EBIT

199

180

-9%

1,066

1,204

13%

1,501

80%

Financial income

9

16

75%

18

50

176%

41

122%

Financial expense

-29

-56

91%

-91

-143

58%

-144

100%

Net other income

1

-24

N.M.

419

-38

N.M.

0

N.M.

PBT

180

116

-36%

1,412

1,071

-24%

1,398

77%

Tax expense

-69

-52

-24%

-328

-341

4%

-379

90%

NPAT-MI

119

62

-48%

1,103

717

-35%

1,005

71%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPM

24.2%

62.1%

 

50.1%

75.1%

 

71.5%

 

SG&A as % of revenue

8.1%

23.8%

 

13.5%

17.6%

 

13.6%

 

OPM

16.1%

38.3%

 

36.6%

57.5%

 

57.9%

 

NPM

9.6%

13.2%

 

37.9%

34.2%

 

38.7%

 

Source: KDH, Vietcap forecast (last updated November 3, 2023)

Powered by Froala Editor