- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for KBC and raise our target price (TP) by 20% to VND28,700/share. 

- Our higher TP is mainly driven by (1) our increased valuation for the Nam Son Hap Linh (NSHL) and Tan Phu Trung IPs we expect stronger ASP and sales in 2023-2024F, (2) a higher net cash balance as of end-Q1 2023, and (3) rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2024 from end-2023. However, these positive impacts are partially offset by a lower valuation for the Quang Chau IP as ~70% (54 ha) of this project’s remaining leasable land was handed over in Q1 2023. 

- For 2023F, we forecast revenue of VND6.3tn (USD268mn; +563% YoY and +2% vs our old forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND2.0tn (USD84mn; +30% YoY and +27% vs our old forecast), which will mainly be driven by our expectation for IP land handovers to jump 7.6x YoY to 162 ha (+10% vs our old forecast). Meanwhile, we expect ASP to decrease 2% YoY to USD145/sqm (+4% vs our old forecast). For the urban area (UA) segment, we expect land handovers to drop 19% YoY to 3.1 ha (-52% vs our old forecast) as we delay deliveries at the Phuc Ninh UA to 2024F. 

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