- We maintain our BUY rating for KBC but cut our target price by 9% to VND35,800/share. Our lower target price is primarily due to our rescheduling of sales launch/handovers for the Trang Cat urban area (UA) to 2026F from 2025F as expected previously.

- We cut our 2024/25/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 45%/31%/17%, respectively, mostly due to lower projected handovers of IP land in 2024F (in accordance with lower-than-expected land sales progress YTD) and handovers for the Trang Cat UA in 2025-26F.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decline 52% YoY to VND972bn (USD38mn) mainly due to lower IP land handovers to 59 ha (vs 151 ha in 2023 and vs 111 ha in our previous 2024F projection) as KBC has a limited amount of readily leasable land while its upcoming projects are still completing legal procedures. We anticipate H2 2024F earnings to be supported by the handovers of ~43 ha of IP land, including ~30 ha of unbilled backlog.

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