IDC released Q1 2023 results with revenue declining 32% YoY to VND1.1tn (USD49mn) and NPAT-MI plunging 42% YoY to VND148bn (USD6mn), completing 13% and 6% of our respective full-year forecasts. The top-line decline was primarily due to a 73% YoY decrease in IP revenue that we attribute to lower one-off recognition for IP land sales. 

Slow cash collection poses potential risks to one-off recognition in H1 2023. As the requirement for one-off revenue recognition is that 90% of contract value must be collected within 12 months, we anticipate potential risk to one-off IP revenue in H1 2023 from contracts signed in H1 2022 (91.4 ha was presold in H1 2022) due to slower cash collection. In Q1 2023, CFO declined 62% YoY to VND245bn (USD10mn), completing 9% of our full-year forecast — with the majority coming from the Huu Thanh IP.