IDC - Scheduled IP land handovers drive strong earnings growth - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-30T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • IDC released its Q3 2024 results with revenue of VND2.3tn (USD91mn; +6% QoQ and +58% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND511bn (USD20mn; +18% QoQ and +3.2x YoY). We attribute the strong Q3 2024 earnings results mainly to the scheduled handovers of unbilled backlog (end-Q2 2024 unbilled backlog was around ~104 ha). 
  • In 9M 2024, IDC’s revenue increased 38% YoY to VND6.9tn (USD276mn) while its NPAT-MI jumped 95% YoY to VND1.6tn (USD66mn), representing 80% and 85% of our respective full-year forecasts. We expect insignificant changes to our 2024F forecasts, pending a fuller review. 
  • The IP segment’s revenue in 9M 2024 increased 51% YoY to VND3.4tn (USD134mn; accounting for 49% of total revenue). We estimate IP cash inflows in 9M 2024 at VND4.0tn (USD160mn; +79% YoY and fulfilling 85% of our full-year forecast). The IP segment’s GPM increased by 9.5 ppts YoY to 60.3% in 9M 2024, which we attribute mainly to a YoY increase in ASP. 
  • IDC will provide detailed results on IP land sales and handovers for Q3 2024 at its upcoming analyst meeting. We estimate 9M 2024 IP land handovers of ~95 ha (double YoY; achieving ~86% of our 2024F forecast of 110 ha). We currently forecast IDC’s IP land sales to decline 41% YoY to 100 ha (of which, 43 ha were in H1 2024), but to recover to 142 ha in 2025F.

IDC’s 9M 2024 results

VND bn

Q3
  2023

Q3
 2024

YoY

9M
 2023

9M
 2024

YoY

2024F

9M as % of 2024F

Net revenue

1,443

2,276

58%

4,998

6,891

38%

8,652

80%

   -  Industrial park (IP)

644

1,008

57%

2,229

3,362

51%

3,918

86%

   -  Energy

730

893

22%

2,070

2,361

14%

3,108

76%

   -  Real estate

20

121

6.2x

73

490

6.7x

680

72%

   -  Other services

50

254

5.1x

626

678

8%

946

72%

Gross profit

405

793

96%

1,601

2,701

69%

3,320

81%

SG&A expenses

-90

-88

-2%

-253

-272

8%

-425

64%

EBIT

315

705

2.2x

1,348

2,429

80%

2,895

84%

Financial income

29

44

52%

132

115

-13%

151

76%

Financial expense

-43

-34

-20%

-148

-104

-29%

-163

64%

Net income from affiliates

0

0

N.M.

1

1

90%

0

N.M.

Net other income

-45

2

N.M.

-37

12

N.M.

13

96%

PBT

256

717

2.8x

1,296

2,453

89%

2,896

85%

NPAT

195

574

3.0x

1,032

1,955

89%

2,317

84%

NPAT-MI

161

511

3.2x

842

1,639

95%

1,935

85%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPM

28.1%

34.9%

 

32.0%

39.2%

 

38.4%

 

      -  Industrial park (IP)

42.8%

56.5%

 

50.9%

60.3%

 

59.6%

 

      -  Energy

13.1%

10.6%

 

10.7%

7.0%

 

8.7%

 

      -  Real estate

77.0%

61.0%

 

68.1%

70.5%

 

66.2%

 

OPM

21.8%

31.0%

 

27.0%

35.2%

 

33.5%

 

NPM

11.1%

22.5%

 

16.9%

23.8%

 

22.4%

 

Source: IDC, Vietcap forecast (last updated August 23, 2024)

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