- IDC released Q3 2023 results with revenue of VND1.4tn (USD60mn; -30% YoY and -40% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND161bn (USD29mn; -62% YoY and -70% QoQ). The YoY decline in revenue was mainly due to a lower one-off IP land sales recognition in the quarter. Meanwhile, Q3 2023 IP land sales handover was primarily from Huu Thanh IP with lower GPM. 

- For 9M 2023, IDC’s revenue declined 29% YoY to VND5.0tn (USD208mn) while its NPAT-MI fell 60% YoY to VND842bn (USD35mn), completing 62% and 45% of our respective full-year forecasts. We foresee potential downside risk to our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast as 9M 2023 IP land sales recognition and GPM trailed our expectations, pending a fuller review. 

- The IP land sales segment recognized 9M 2023 revenue of VND2.2tn (USD93mn; -45% YoY), mainly from the one-off revenue recognition at Huu Thanh IP, Que Vo 2 IP, and Phu My 2 & Phu My 2 expansion IP. The segment’s 9M 2023 revenue was broadly in line with our expectation while its GPM (50.6% in 9M 2023) trailed our full-year forecast (57.3%), which we attribute to a higher contribution from Huu Thanh IP (which has relatively low GPM of ~42%). We estimate total cash inflow from IP land sales in Q3 2023 at VND678bn (USD28mn), bringing total estimated 9M 2023 cash inflows from IP land sales to VND2.2tn (USD93mn), completing 58% of our full-year forecast.

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