IDC [BUY +20.8%] - Resilient cash inflows, IP land sales to pick up in 2025F

- We maintain our BUY rating for IDC but reduce our target price by 2% to VND70,300/share. Our lower target price is mainly driven by our respective cuts in 2024/25F IP land sales to 100 ha/142 ha (vs 145 ha/150 ha expected previously) while our longer-term IP land sales forecast from 2026F onward remains broadly unchanged.

- We increase our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 2% mostly due to a higher projected GPM for the IP segment. We cut our respective 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 10%/6% as a result of lower projected IP land sales and handovers.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to grow 39% YoY to VND1.9tn (USD76mn), with H2 2024F being mainly driven by IP land handovers of 45 ha (the end-Q2 2024 unbilled backlog was ~104 ha). We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI growth at 7% vs 2024F, mainly driven by ASP growth and a higher YoY contribution from the residential segment while we forecast IP land handovers to remain flat YoY at 110 ha in 2025F.