- We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND35,700/share.

- Our higher TP is driven by (1) rolling our TP forward to end-2025 and (2) 4%/2%/3%/3%/3% higher 2025/26/27/28/29F NPAT-MI projections, outweighing our lower target P/E of 15.0x. 

- We keep our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast broadly unchanged. Following strong 9M 2024 results, we increase (1) steel revenue by 5% (driven by higher ASP, partially offset by lower sales volume), (2) the real estate segment NPAT-MI by 5%, and (3) reduce financial expenses by 5%. These are offset by (1) 45 bps lower steel GPM, (2) an 11% drop in agriculture segment NPAT-MI, and (3) an 11% reduction in financial income forecasts due to weaker-than-expected 9M performance.

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