- We maintain our BUY rating for HPG but cut our target price (TP) by 9% to VND32,100/share. HPG’s share price has dropped by 11% over the last three months. 

- Our lower TP is driven by (1) a 5% reduction in our 2024-28F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast, and (2) a 21% cut in our P/E-derived valuation due to a 21% downgrade in our 2024-25F NPAT-MI forecast. We maintain our target P/E of 18.0x to reflect HPG’s high growth phase in 2024-25F.

- Our 5% lower aggregate 2024-28F NPAT-MI forecast includes cuts of 19%/24%/10% for 2024/25/26F due to a more conservative steel market outlook from weak Chinese demand. This is partly offset by 3%/16% increases in 2027/28F as we factor in the impact of DQSC2’s second blast furnace, which will boost 2027/28F HRC sales volume.

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