- We upgrade our rating for HPG to BUY from OUTPERFORM and raise our target price (TP) by 20% to VND35,200/share. HPG’s share price has rallied by 16% over the last three months.

- Our higher TP is mainly because 1) we increase aggregate 2024-28F earnings by 2%, 2) a lower WACC assumption, and 3) we raise our target P/E to 18.0x from 13.0x previously and use a higher average 2024-25F EPS in our P/E multiple valuation to better capture HPG’s high growth phase in 2024-2025 following a cyclical low in earnings in 2023.

- HPG’s full-year 2023 results were in-line with our forecast NPAT-MI of VND6.8tn (USD279.0mn, -19% YoY). HPG posted better-than-expected 2023’s construction steel sales volume, which prompts us to raise 2024/25F sales volume for this product by 11% each year.

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