- We cut our target price (TP) for HDG by 9% but upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM as its share price has dropped by 11% over the past three months. 

- Our lower TP is due to an 8% decrease in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI and applying a 10% discount to our derived total equity value to reflect the legal risks associated with its Hong Phong 4 solar farm. These factors outweigh the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to end-2024 and removing a 5% discount that we previously applied to our real estate RNAV. 

- The reduction in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI forecast is mainly driven by an 11% cut to our aggregate 2023-2027F earnings projection for the real estate segment due to (1) our expectations for the sales launch of Charm Villas – Phase 3 to occur in Q1 2024 instead of Q4 2023 as in our previous model and (2) a one-year delay to our assumed revenue and profit recognition timeline of the Dich Vong, Noongtha and Alila Bao Dai projects.

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