- We raise our target price (TP) for HDG by 6.5% to VND29,300 but downgrade from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PEFORM as the share price is up 18% over the past four months. 

- Our higher TP is mainly driven by (1) our 13% higher valuation for the energy segment as we add three new power projects and increase our earnings projection for Infra 1 solar power, (2) a higher net cash balance at the parent company, and (3) the positive impact of rolling our TP to mid-2025. These outweigh our 13% lower valuation for the real estate segment to reflect delays of 1-3 years for most of HDG’s projects, in line with the company’s latest guidance. 

- We lower our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast by 28% (-21%/-27%/-58%/-31%/-10% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively), primarily due to our lower sales projections due to extended recognition periods for Charm Villas from 2024-2025F to 2026F, a one-year delay for the Minh Long project and a 2-3 years delay for HDG’s other real estate projects.

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