We trim our target price by 4% due to the delayed sales launches of the Hado Minh Long and Hado Greenlane real estate projects and a 50-bp increase in our risk-free rate assumption. However, we reiterate our BUY rating and maintain our optimistic view on HDG’s growth potential as it plans to quadruple its land bank to 450 ha and double its power capacity to 1,000 MW in the next five years.

We lower our 2022-2025F aggregate NPAT forecast by 4% as we delay the sales launches of Hado Greenlane and Hado Minh Long from late 2022 to H1 2023 and H2 2023, respectively. However, we increase our NPAT forecast for Hado Minh Long by 65% to VND1.4tn after HDG’s latest guidance.

We maintain our 2022F NPAT-MI forecast as higher-than-expected financial income offsets the weaker-than-expected hotel & office leasing segment. We project 2022F NPAT-MI to jump ~22%.