HDC [OUTPERFORM +18.2%] - Large land bank leveraged to expected recovery in Vung Tau

- We initiate coverage of Ba Ria Vung Tau House Development JSC (HODECO; HOSE: HDC) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of VND33,800/share.

- HDC is an established developer in Ba Ria Vung Tau (BRVT). HDC currently owns a total land bank of ~430 ha that is under development, mainly in BRVT (except one project in Binh Thuan). Over the long run, we believe HDC can capitalize on its large land bank supported by its extensive experience in BRVT and improving infrastructure development in southern Vietnam.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to grow 75% YoY to VND230bn (USD9.2mn), driven by continued stake sales recognition at the Dai Duong project and backlogs at The Light City Phase 1 (P1) and Ngoc Tuoc 2 projects in H2 2024F.