HDB released 9M 2021 consolidated results with TOI of VND12.1tn (USD527mn; +23.6% YoY) and bottom-line net profit of VND4.9tn (USD212mn; +39.0% YoY), achieving 72% and 79% of our FY2021 forecasts, respectively. The increase in 9M 2021 consolidated NPAT was mainly due to (1) a 16.7% YoY increase in NII, (2) 81.1% YoY increase in NFI (including FX trading gains), (3) 283.2% YoY increase in gains from investment securities and (4) 9.9% YoY increase in OPEX that significantly lagged TOI growth. Given that Q3 results appear to be propelled by lower-than-expected provisioning, we are cautious about flagging forecast changes given the high probability of an uptick in provisioning that may occur in Q4 2021, pending a fuller review.

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