- We increase our target price (TP) for HDB by 4.1% to VND25,500/share due to the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2024F, which outweighs (1) a 1.8% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (0.2%/-0.1%/-2.1%/-5.0%/-5.2% for 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively) and (2) decreasing our target P/B from 1.20x to 1.10x.

- Our 2023F NPAT-MI of VND12.6tn (USD535mn; +62.2% YoY) is roughly unchanged from our previous forecast as (1) a 13.8% decrease in our NOII assumption and (2) 2.4% increase in our projected provision expenses are offset by (2) a 16.3% decrease in our OPEX assumption.

- We maintain our assumption that HDB will receive an upfront fee of VND5tn from signing an exclusive partnership with a life insurer in 2023F.

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