- We maintain our BUY rating for HDB but decrease our target price (TP) by 5.4% to VND21,000/share mainly due to a 4.5% decrease in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (-32.0%/+35.5%/-7.2%/-5.7%/-4.2% for 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively).

- Our 2023F NPAT-MI of VND8.5tn (USD357mn; +10.2% YoY) is roughly unchanged from our previous forecast (excluding our assumption for one-off income from bancassurance) as (1) our 14% higher provision expense assumption is offset by (2) a 17% increase in our NOII assumption (excluding one-off income) due to our higher forecast for gains from trading FX and investment activities.  

- We delay our assumption for HDB receiving an upfront fee of VND5tn from signing an exclusive partnership with a life insurer from 2023F to 2024F due to currently unfavorable market conditions. HDB targets 2023 PBT to rise 28% YoY vs our forecast of 12% YoY.

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