- We maintain our BUY rating for HDB and increase our target price (TP) by 7.1% to VND22,500/share mainly due to (1) a 5.1% increase in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (+8.0%/+4.6%/+4.6%/+5.1%/+4.3% for 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively) and (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to end-2024F.

- We increase our 2023F NPAT-MI by 8.0% to VND9.2tn (USD378mn; +19.0% YoY) as (1) our 12.2% cut in provision expense assumption and (2) 85.0% increase in our forecasts for gains from investment securities outweighs (3) a 13.2% decrease in forecast fee income following weaker-than-expected performance in Q3 2023.

- We assume that HDB will receive an upfront fee of VND5tn from signing an exclusive partnership with a life insurer in 2024F. HDB targets 2023 PBT to rise 25% YoY vs our forecast of 16% YoY.

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