HDB [BUY + 24.7%] - Robust ROE outlook with strong NIM expansion in 2024F

• We increase our target price (TP) by 7.7% to VND28,000/share, and upgrade our rating for HDB from OUTPERFORM to BUY. Our higher TP is mainly due to (1) the positive impact of rolling forward our TP horizon to mid-2025, which outweighs (2) a 1.4% decrease in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (-0.1%/-0.8%/-2.1%/0%/-2.3% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively).

• We maintain 2024F NPAT-MI at VND12.3tn (USD492mn; +22.2% YoY) primarily due to (1) a 2.5% increase in NII with our higher NIM forecast, outweighing (2) a 15% decrease in NOII.

• We remove our assumption on HDB recording VND5tn of bancassurance income from finalizing an exclusive bancassurance partnership in 15 years, starting late 2024F given short-term unfavorable conditions. However, this remains a potential catalyst in the long term for the bank with opportunities to enrich its fee income.