- We downgrade our rating for GVR to UNDERPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM but raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND17,600/share. Our higher TP is mainly due to rolling forward our TP horizon to end-2024 from mid-2024 which is partially offset by our projection for 2024-25F recovery of the rubber and wood segments coming slower than our previous expectation. 

- We lower our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 18% to VND2.6tn (USD108mn; -31% YoY) following lower-than-expected 9M 2023 performance and the recently-announced preliminary 2023 result. We attribute this low performance primarily to a slower-than-expected recovery in rubber selling prices, which affected GPM and NPAT-MI results.

- We forecast 2024F/25F NPAT-MI growth of 19%/22% YoY, which will be chiefly driven by expected GPM improvement when rubber consumption demand and ASP recover, in addition to a turnaround in profit for GVR’s affiliates. We revise down our 2024F/25F NPAT-MI forecasts by 21%/13% mainly due to slower recovery in ASP and demand for the rubber and wood segments compared to our previous expectation. 

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