GVR [OUTPERFORM +11.0%] - Headwinds for rubber segment, land bank value support

- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for GVR despite cutting our target price (TP) by 4.8% to VND27,600/share.

- Our lower TP is mainly driven by cutting our profit forecasts for the natural rubber segment and our 0.5-ppt higher risk-free rate assumption. These changes cause us to decrease our aggregate 2022-2025F NPAT-MI forecasts by 6.9%.

- For 2022F, we forecast revenue of VND26.8tn (USD1.2bn; +2.5% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND4.1tn (USD178mn; -1.1% YoY). We expect revenue growth will be supported by the natural rubber latex segment. Meanwhile, the bottom line will be driven by net other income from compensation and old tree liquidation, which is partially dragged down by a 3.3-ppt GPM contraction in the year.